In recent weeks, events cascading throughout Europe’s southern regions and in the Caucasus have recaptured the attention of observers. Today, we preview upcoming articles at Foreign Intrigue in our Fracture Points series. In the coming weeks here and at SOFREP, I will be publishing pieces outlining the issues of political unrest, military confrontation, and regional instability in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.
In Moldova, fears over a resurgence of secessionist provocations in Transnistria and Găgăuzia have driven speculation of Russian interference mirroring those previously noted in the Transcaucasian state of Georgia. These re-intensified fears of Russian aggression in the post-Soviet space have been punctuated by the recent ratification of an association agreement by the European Union’s parliament and apprehension over the potential for reduced access to essential energy supplies (gas) this winter.
As the conflict in Eastern Ukraine calcifies, the events along Europe’s southern flank and in Transcaucasia underline important changes on the horizon. In the coming days and weeks, we’ll be posting some articles and accompanying analysis on trade and military agreements to help place the events in context.
In August, as part of my series on Fracture Points, SOFREP posted an article I submitted on the topic of South Ossetia. Earlier this month, the Roki Tunnel was re-opened, generating speculation that Russian strategists were signaling a re-prioritization of their interests in the South Caucasus and foreshadowing potential intensification of Russian military involvement in the region. Today, reports continued to provide substantial evidence for my earlier assessments of likely escalation of Russian intervention in the affairs of the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia.
Below is an excerpt from my article at SOFREP covering South Ossetia. You can link to the full article here.
Placing the issue of South Ossetian secession and the geopolitical games that culminated in the war of August 2008, it was the modern-day rule and collapse of the Soviet Union that truly catalyzed the current state of conflict between South Ossetia, Russia, and Georgia.The modern secessionist movement in South Ossetia dates back decades, most accurately to the last years of the Soviet Union’s existence… Georgia has managed only tenuously to hold its official government authority over the breakaway region.
(Featured photo courtesy of Alinor and Wikimedia Commons)
Editor in Chief
Latest posts by Eric Jones (see all)
- Overwatch: the Foreign Intrigue Podcast, Episode 2 (United States Presidential Candidates and Foreign Policy) - 15 February 2016
- Overwatch: the Foreign Intrigue Podcast, Episode 1 (Foreign Policy and the US Presidential Election) - 8 February 2016
- Central Asia at a Crossroads: Introduction and Overview - 30 December 2015